NCAA Championship Matchup: Analyzing the North Carolina Tar Heels

NCAA Championship Matchup: Analyzing the North Carolina Tar Heels
Date / Time: Monday, April 4 – 9:20 PM ET
Site: NRG Stadium – Houston
TV Coverage: TBS

March Madness Betting Odds at BetAnySports

Pointspread: North Carolina -2

Total: 149 points

As the NCAA championship game approaches, this is not one of those storylines were one team is looking to accomplish the “impossible.” But we can probably forecast that it is going to be very difficult for the Villanova Wildcats to get a real handle on the North Carolina Tar Heels on the inside. That goes for both ends of the floor, but if you are truly analyzing this matchup, you need to concern yourself with whether Villanova can keep the Tar Heels off the glass on the offensive end. Out of 346 college programs, North Carolina was seventh in offensive rebounding, pulling down 14 per game, and maybe, just maybe, Villanova is a little vulnerable in that area, as they gave up 19 offensive caroms to the Sooners. Granted, that was in a game were Oklahoma missed quite a few shots, making only 32% on the evening, but all you have to do is take a look at the respective rosters and you’ll know exactly what we’re talking about.

When BetAnySports customers see what North Carolina can put out there, is kind of scary. In fact, it is almost reminiscent of an NBA team, because they can put 6-10 and 6-9 in the starting lineup, and then bring 6-10 and 6-9 off the bench. When Villanova only has one big guy on the floor (6-11 Daniel Ochefu) and four guards, you can see that this is going to be a game in which the Wildcats have to defend their hoop perhaps more than once on every North Carolina offensive possession, because those Tar Heels are going to be hitting the boards HARD.

Actually, what is kind of interesting about this North Carolina team is that you would generally expect that a team with as much useful size as they have would want to slow the game down, especially when they have the ball, and work for a good shot in the paint. But these guys will get out in transition if you give them the opportunity. That was certainly one of the things that was necessary against Syracuse, because Jim Boeheim’s matchup zone often did not have a chance to set up. But hey, when you can score 89 points per game during the NCAA Tournament, you are going to be operating at a pace that is uncomfortable for teams who might be looking at a better hot for themselves slowing the game down.

We suspect this could be the case with Villanova, because of the fact that when they went up against another high-octane offense in Kansas earlier, they took advantage of limiting the number of possessions. As it was, they just did a great job on the perimeter against the team that had five players over 40% from beyond the arc, holding Kansas to just 27% from long-range, and the rest kind of took care of itself. Against North Carolina, the Wildcats will find a different story, because Roy Williams’ team does not have to live by the three-pointer. In fact, they are better off eschewing it all together, as they hit only 32%. You have to wonder whether, after all this hot shooting, Villanova might just find themselves in the midst of an off-night, and if that happens, considering that they can’t really compete in terms of size, what will they do? Can they force a lot of turnovers and gain extra possessions that way? Well, North Carolina is pretty slick in that department, as they have the third-best assist-turnover ratio in the nation. And it doesn’t appear that the Tar Heels are going to give away a lot of points at the line either, as they make 75% of their free throws. Only one team in the last 28 games has shot 45% or better against North Carolina. That, on the surface, doesn’t seem to bode well for Villanova’s prospects.

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