Broncos vs. Steelers: How Peyton Manning affects 2012 Denver betting lines

The Peyton Manning era in Denver finally gets under way Sunday night against the Steelers after months of anticipation from the football nation. Perhaps the best part of the anticipation is the debate among the fans about the degree of success he’ll experience after missing the entire 2011 season and having four neck surgeries.

Here in Las Vegas, pro football fans don’t just debate the matter, they wager accordingly, and there have been two factions that have made their voices loud and clear. On one end, we have the largest portion of fans with small money betting the Broncos to win the Super Bowl as if they’ve already seen the Feb. 4, 2013 newspaper. On the other side, we have a small portion of bettors with large money betting the Broncos to win less than 8 ½ games in the over-under, season-win totals offered.

“We opened the Broncos 50-to-1 to win the Super Bowl in January before the last Super Bowl had played,” LVH Super Book assistant manager Jeff Sherman says, “and then when rumors were swirling in March about the three teams Manning would interview with after he was released from the Colts, we immediately dropped all their odds with the Broncos going to 20-to-1 just to be cautious.

“When he officially became a Bronco, we moved Denver to 10-to-1 and the public has been betting them all summer long. The Broncos and 49ers (10/1) are easily the most bet teams in our futures.”

As for the larger, sharper money, those bettors are a little more skeptical than the rest of the public on how Manning will fare this season. When the season-win totals came out in May at several sports books, the Broncos were bet down from winning 9 ½ games to 8 ½ games. It takes limit wagers to move the money-line on a total of 15 to 20 cents, and it takes about a dozen of those types of bets to move a half-game off the number. In the Broncos’ case, they’ve moved a whole game below what was first offered.

Rick Herron, one of The Linemakers on Sporting News, is one of those skeptics.

“I have a lot of questions beyond the possibility of Manning just staying healthy all season,” says Herron, who ran sports books for the Las Vegas Hilton, Sands and Fremont casinos. “Missing an entire season is a big deal, and even when he was playing for the Colts, we started to see a decline from his former self as his interception totals went up for three consecutive years.”

Renowned Las Vegas odds maker Kenny White has concerns as well, but is very optimistic about the possibilities Manning brings to Denver.

“Manning immediately brings a 5 ½-point upgrade to the Broncos rating from what they had last year with Tim Tebow running the offense,” White says. “For the last decade he’s been one of the most important players in regards to a team rating. All you have to do is look at what happened to the Colts last season without him. It was about an 8 ½ to 9-point drop-off.”

Assuming Manning stays healthy, the other question marks this season for Denver is how well he adapts and whether he has the supporting cast on offense and defense to make a run for the AFC West division crown and beyond. White believes Manning does.

“The Broncos are loaded on offense,” White says. “Manning will make Eric Decker a household name and he’s got (Demaryius) Thomas on the other side along with two big strong pass-catching tight ends, as well as an offensive line that run blocked their way to lead the league in rushing last season.

“They’re never going to lead the league in rushing again with Manning at the controls, but Willis McGahee will still have a great season. And we’re also going to be wowed by rookie Ronnie Hillman at some point this season.”

The defense appears to be in decent shape only because it has a great pass rush led by Elvis Dumervil and second-year sack specialist Von Miller. Their ability to get after the quarterback quickly masks a secondary that is Denver’s biggest defensive liability.

The Broncos opened up as 1-point home favorites over the Steelers and have been bet up to minus-1 ½. The Linemakers NFL Power Ratings have the Broncos at 96.5, tied with the Cowboys for 13th-best. The Steelers’ rating is 98.5, tied for fourth-best in the league with the 49ers. When adding in three points for the Broncos’ home-field advantage, the spread comes out perfectly to where it’s currently listed on the market.

Because of all the anticipation of football simply being back, Manning returning and this being an isolated Sunday night game, this should be one of the higher wagered upon games of the season.

Although it’s only the first week, the Steelers’ game is pivotal for the Broncos because it’s the first of seven games this season against opponents that made the playoffs last season. Getting nine wins or more could be very difficult for the Broncos if they don’t start off with some momentum. In Week 2 they play at Atlanta, and in Week 3 they welcome the Texans to Denver.

It’s just as conceivable that they could start out 0-3 as it would be to expect 3-0, but regardless of how it turns out, it will be fun to watch.

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